Billboard Music Awards Predictions: Olivia Rodrigo, Ariana Grande…

Continuing with this year’s coverage of the 2022 Billboard Music Awards, which air May 15, let’s take a look at some of the night’s biggest and most anticipated categories for songs, albums and artists, featuring more breakdowns by category to come.

Billboard 200 Top Album

Morgan Wallen‘Dangerous: The Double Album’ seems like the obvious winner here, given that it topped the Billboard 200 for 10 weeks and hasn’t budged much since, still being in the top five so far after 16 months on the chart. However, Adeleis “30” and Olivia Rodrigue‘s “Sour” are the two big sellers that might upset.

Adele’s advantage could be that her first week sales were massive and could help her cross the finish line. Rodrigo, on the other hand, has had more longevity than Adele, with “Sour” still in the top 10 as of May 2022. As such, both could pose threats to Wallen, especially since many of the biggest weeks for “Dangerous” counted towards the last Billboard Music Awards eligibility period, not this year’s. However, I’ll stick with Wallen’s impressive longevity as the winning factor here. Wallen is set to have a big night, making her return to television after last year’s controversy.

Best Song of the Top 100

You’d think it would be an easy win for Doua Lipa‘s “Levitating” given that it topped the Year-End Hot 100 chart. However, with the additional months difference between the year-end charts (calculated after the end of November) and the year of eligibility for the Billboard Music Awards (which ended in March), there is a chance for The weekend and Ariana Grande“Save Your Tears” to create surprise. The song currently charts on “Levitating” on the Hot 100, and has been for several weeks. So you could say that “Save Your Tears” can make up for the point difference and ultimately bring this home.

Another song worth considering is “Stay” by Kid LAROI and justin bieber. The song refused to leave the top 10, and while it wasn’t as high on the year-end chart, that could just be because it came out in the summer and didn’t get as many long to get chart points, especially not as much as the 2020 carry overs “Levitating” and “Save Your Tears”. “Stay” is already one of the longest-running top 10 hits of all time and might even surpass “Levitating” in that regard, so don’t underestimate it.

Better cooperation

justin bieber, Daniel Caesarand Overlook‘s “Peaches” and Lil Nas X and Jack Harlow“Industry Baby” missed the Top Hot 100 Song nominations list, so they’re safe here. Doja Cat and SZA“Kiss Me More” was a big hit, but it wasn’t as big as the other two nominees here. In the end, it will come down to “Save Your Tears” or “Stay.”

My bet is on “Save Your Tears” because it’s had more time to rack up points and, despite being quite old now, still hasn’t left the Hot 100. However, “Stay” might have had some higher peaks and therefore more chart points, which might help him bring this one home. Ultimately, whatever the take, it could also have a good chance of winning the Top Hot 100 Song. “Levitating” by Dua Lipa is absent from this line-up. She surely would have been nominated here too if it hadn’t been for… you know who had her remix version pulled from the air after blatant homophobic remarks.

Best New Artist

Do we really have to explain why Olivia Rodrigo will continue her sweep of new categories of artists throughout the year? This singer-songwriter managed to land four top 10 hits, including number one singles “Drivers License” and “Good 4 U,” not to mention charting every other song from her debut album “Sour” in the charts. Hot 100 as well. Rodrigo’s album was the second most successful of 2021 and is still a big seller. There’s little competition here other than The Kid LAROI, but he just didn’t have the hits that Rodrigo did despite the massive success of “Stay.” At this rate, just rename each Best New Artist category as the Olivia Rodrigo Award, if we’re real.

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