The music industry will crack $153 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs

A distant photo of the Goldman Sachs Tower in Jersey City, New Jersey. Photo credit: Jordan Merrick

Amid the continued resurgence of crowd entertainment like concerts and festivals — and despite Spotify’s subscriber growth slowing — Goldman Sachs estimates the music industry is on pace to generate $153 billion in annual revenue by 2030.

Goldman – which has invested in both music and in-person events – detailed its ambitious long-term vision for the music industry in a recently released edition of the “Music In The Air” report. Goldman expects annual industry revenues to approach $153 billion in 2030, as mentioned, up significantly from previous projections of around $131 billion.

Additionally, the revenue estimate for 2022 in particular has risen from $81.6 billion to $87.6 billion, according to the same source, driven by the return of crowd-based entertainment as well as an optimistic view. streaming performance. On the first front, major promoters and ticketing platforms have indicated that they are experiencing major sales rushes, and all manner of artists continue to announce tours.

But even with a seemingly less clear picture for streaming — Spotify reported relatively slow subscriber growth in the first quarter of 2022, once again — Goldman argued the long-expanding segment “shows no signs of saturation” and doubled down. his belief that consumers will continue to spend on music despite “higher inflation/weaker macro environment”.

Time will tell if Goldman’s resolutely positive stance materializes, though it’s worth remembering that the entity has a direct financial incentive to take a positive view of the music industry.

The aforementioned investments (along with several others) in music mean the company stands to gain if the industry does — a point that has raised reasonable and widely noted concerns about the objectivity of Goldman’s research.

Additionally, a cursory glance at the “Music In The Air” report for 2017-18 raises questions about the presence (or absence) of an inflation adjustment in the underlying calculations. DMN contacted Goldman’s Lisa Yang, the person behind the analysis, but did not receive a response in time for publication.

In any event, Goldman, a longtime opponent of streaming service price increases, isn’t alone in believing that music streaming will hold its own in the face of a tough economy and runaway inflation. Hipgnosis founder and CEO Merck Mercuriadis last week highlighted the “massive” value that global platforms like Spotify, Apple Music and Amazon Music offer subscribers, also acknowledging the contrast of their comprehensive libraries with the offerings. fragmented streaming services on the video side. .

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